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Abstract Proxy‐based reconstructions suggest that equilibrium changes in global mean sea surface temperature (ΔGMSST) are nearly equivalent to changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) on glacial‐interglacial timescales over the past 900,000 years. However, the underlying mechanisms responsible for this relationship remain poorly understood. Here we use simulations from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 4 (PMIP3/4) to investigate equilibrium ΔMOT and its linkage to sea surface temperature changes between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) and pre‐Industrial. Results show that PMIP3/4 simulations generally underestimate proxy‐based ΔMOT. Regression analysis reveals that LGM MOT is strongly modulated by mid‐latitude SST cooling, with the Southern Ocean having a greater influence compared to other oceanic regions, thus helping explain why models with similar ΔGMSSTs exhibit significantly different ΔMOTs. Additionally, we find a strong relationship between simulated Antarctic sea‐ice coverage and Southern Ocean SST changes, with implications for constraining sea‐ice reconstructions. 

A high-quality hydrographic observational database is essential for ocean and climate studies and operational applications. Because there are numerous global and regional ocean databases, duplicate data continues to be an issue in data management, data processing and database merging, posing a challenge on effectively and accurately using oceanographic data to derive robust statistics and reliable data products. This study aims to provide algorithms to identify the duplicates and assign labels to them. We propose first a set of criteria to define the duplicate data; and second, an open-source and semi-automatic system to detect duplicate data and erroneous metadata. This system includes several algorithms for automatic checks using statistical methods (such as Principal Component Analysis and entropy weighting) and an additional expert (manual) check. The robustness of the system is then evaluated with a subset of the World Ocean Database (WOD18) with over 600,000in-situtemperature and salinity profiles. This system is an open-source Python package (named DC_OCEAN) allowing users to effectively use the software. Users can customize their settings. The application result from the WOD18 subset also forms a benchmark dataset, which is available to support future studies on duplicate checks, metadata error identification, and machine learning applications. This duplicate checking system will be incorporated into the International Quality-controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) data quality control system to guarantee the uniqueness of ocean observation data in this product. 

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and feedback. To date, the most precise measurements of EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while the quantification of EEI absolute magnitude is facilitated through heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% of heat uptake manifests as an increase in ocean heat content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from in situ and satellite observations, as well as from reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed the GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties and reconcile current knowledge of EEI magnitude, variability and trends. Here, 21 OHC datasets and ocean heat uptake (OHU) rates are intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 and 0.96 ± 0.08 W m⁻²(2005–2019), a spread that is slightly reduced when unequal ocean sampling is accounted for, and that is largely attributable to differing source data, mapping methods and quality control procedures. The rate of increase in OHU varies substantially between − 0.03 ± 0.13 (reanalysis product) and 1.1 ± 0.6 W m⁻² dec⁻¹(satellite product). Products that either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill in situ data-sparse regions based on additional physical knowledge (some reanalysis and hybrid products) tend to track radiometric EEI variability better than purely in situ-based OHC products. This paper also examines zonal trends in TOA radiative fluxes and the impact of data gaps on trend estimates. The GEWEX-EEI community aims to refine their assessment studies, to forge a path toward best practices, e.g., in uncertainty quantification, and to formulate recommendations for future activities. 

Abstract The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization. 

Ocean temperature observations are crucial for a host of climate research and forecasting activities, such as climate monitoring, ocean reanalysis and state estimation, seasonal-to-decadal forecasts, and ocean forecasting. For all of these applications, it is crucial to understand the uncertainty attached to each of the observations, accounting for changes in instrument technology and observing practices over time. Here, we describe the rationale behind the uncertainty specification provided for all in situ ocean temperature observations in the International Quality-controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) v0.1, a value-added data product served alongside the World Ocean Database (WOD). We collected information from manufacturer specifications and other publications, providing the end user with uncertainty estimates based mainly on instrument type, along with extant auxiliary information such as calibration and collection method. The provision of a consistent set of observation uncertainties will provide a more complete understanding of historical ocean observations used to examine the changing environment. Moving forward, IQuOD will continue to work with the ocean observation, data assimilation and ocean climate communities to further refine uncertainty quantification. We encourage submissions of metadata and information about historical practices to the IQuOD project and WOD. 

Proxy reconstructions suggest that increasing global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) during the last deglaciation was accompanied by a comparable or greater increase in global mean ocean temperature (GMOT), corresponding to a large heat storage efficiency (HSE; ∆GMOT/∆GMSST). An increased GMOT is commonly attributed to surface warming at sites of deepwater formation, but winter sea ice covered much of these source areas during the last deglaciation, which would imply an HSE much less than 1. Here, we use climate model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions of ocean temperature changes to show that an increased deglacial HSE is achieved by warming of intermediate-depth waters forced by mid-latitude surface warming in response to greenhouse gas and ice sheet forcing as well as by reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation associated with meltwater forcing. These results, which highlight the role of surface warming and oceanic circulation changes, have implications for our understanding of long-term ocean heat storage change.